[7rings] catchall for steven

[shiftingwinds]

i'll make this post pretty when i'm less canonblind to steven

Comments

[shiftingwinds]

..."Prisoner's Dilemma" and "Keynesian Beauty Contest"?

[???????????????????????????]

1/2

[kokytos]

Oh, ah. They're both thought problems, like hypothetical societal riddles.

The Prisoner's Dilemma is a game theory scenario, where two criminals are caught and jailed separately for their crimes, for a sentence each of three years. The warden gives each of them a special deal: if you rat out the other criminal, then your own sentence will be reduced, while the other serves an additional two years. Alternatively, if the other criminal rats you out, then the opposite holds true. If both people end up ratting each other out, then the sentence is extended by one year for both. Finally, if both people don't rat each other out, then there isn't enough evidence to keep them, and they're set free after their three year charge.

In a way, it's relevant to our scenario, because the "ratting out" is the votes. If we all cooperate, then we could come away with the best deal, which is no more extra lives lost to the executions; however, just a single vote could lead to your own death, which makes it so that it would be in your self-interest to vote someone else just in case.

2/2

[kokytos]

The Keynesian Beauty Contest on the other hand, is more about economics, but I think the scenario applies decently. In this scenario, a town posts five pictures of beautiful women, and asks the populace to vote for the most beautiful woman. All the people who voted the most popular woman are awarded a prize; because of this, people won't vote for who they personally think is the most beautiful, but rather, who they think will be the most beautiful in the eyes of everyone else.

In summary, it's a scenario where people are rewarded for choosing what's popular, not what's objectively right. Which I think is also happening in the trials, due to the high pressure environment.

[ Sorry for being a nerd, ]

[shiftingwinds]

[oh, this is kind of fascinating, though.]

I see... in the first case, of course the ideal thing to do would be to not vote at all, but seeing as we don't know who got away yesterday...

[then again, if they're all watching each other, no one would be able to secretly vote, would they?]

But for the second - what, you think people voted for whoever was most likely to get more votes...?

[kokytos]

It's more the concept of mob mentality.

The wisest thing, of course, is to either not vote, or vote the appropriate culprit -- the most "beautiful". But look how easily we're swayed as a people.

Kaz's only reason for voting Beauregard was because someone else said so.

[shiftingwinds]

[counterpoint: kaz is kind of a moron



sqx is too nice to actually say this]

...I see... you're right about that.

[kokytos]

[ Counterpoint Combo x2: Kaz definitely still voted. ]

Tricky balance, isn't it?

[shiftingwinds]

The most ideal option would be to avoid doing anything that would cause a trial to happen at all.

[kokytos]

Yeah... but that's also asking for a bit much.

You could ask every single person in this building to cooperate in peace, but what good will it do? I'm sure there will be people who won't believe you, may even doubt your intentions. Or maybe others who will take advantage of it, and take the opportunity to instead use everyone's lowered guard as a chance for murder.

[ Drink. ]

[shiftingwinds]

...

[drains her entire glass, pours another, and then drains that too tbh.]

[kokytos]

[ ...

Yeah, he understands. He takes a sip of his own wine. ]

Sorry.

[shiftingwinds]

You don't need to apologize for telling the truth.

[she stares at the bottle of wine like she's contemplating whether she wants to drink in moderation like she said she would, or if she wants to pour herself another glass and down it in one gulp.]

The sooner we accept this place for what it is, the sooner we can figure out what to do. We might not be able to make the ideal choice in every situation, but I want us to bring this to as ideal an end as possible.

[kokytos]

[ Go for it SQX. Unbeknownst to you, your drinking power will be taken away tomorrow... ]

That's true. If there's an endgame to all of this, then the sooner it's found, the better. Less lives lost, less lives risked.

[shiftingwinds]

[alas, she doesn't know that, so for now she chooses to be responsible and gets herself a glass of water instead.]

Well, supposedly the more we indulge, the faster this will be over, didn't they say?

[kokytos]

[ ...He sighs, putting his chin in the crook of his palm. He's been doing way too much of this sighing stuff, but everything is so tiring. ]

I wonder how much indulging is "enough".
How have you been indulging so far?

[shiftingwinds]

I'm pretty sure I've spent more time here drunk than I have sober.

[so that's a yes]

[kokytos]

[ He huffs a laugh. ]

Well, it definitely seems like you can hold it at any rate.

[shiftingwinds]

It's a talent!

[kokytos]

More like a superpower. [ God. Literally. ]

[shiftingwinds]

Ahahaha, I suppose you could call it that.

[kokytos]

If only I had those kinds of little things...

[shiftingwinds]

In this case, it really did just come with practice!

[500 years of it]

If you want something like that, you can definitely get it if you work hard.

[kokytos]

I think I've lived long enough and drank a decent amount!
I don't have any plans to turn into a raging alcoholic, thanks.

[ A small attempt at a spot of humour. To balance all the earlier, waving his glass at her. He's still maybe just on his second at best? ]

[shiftingwinds]

[she laughs]

I suppose that's fair enough!

[kokytos]

[ He chuckles at her laughter. Her positivity despite it all is nice. ]

I commend your ability to laugh despite the odds, you... y...

[ Ah -- his head sways a moment, vision swimming. He blinks it away, fast, and smiles. ]

...You know?